A little over a year ago American Heart Association made the
a projection that the obesity epidemic would reach a level where 83% of American men and 72 % of women will be overweight or obese in 2020. The percentage today is 72 and 63 percent respectively. But recent news suggest that general obesity levels have stagnated. So has
childhood obesity.
I think the key here is the word projection. Many forecasts are simply extrapolations of current trends, overlooking the possibility that trends may discontinue. Ironically gloomy extrapolations can actually in themselves prevent their own prophecy from materializing when they foster enough motivation to counteract the projected tendencies.
When I wrote the piece
Generation Z - Forecasts and Formula in May of 2011 I predicted that the children of tomorrow are not automatically going to be plagued by higher obesity rates than the childhood generation or today and yesteryears. The reason is because with increasing attention to the problem, unhealthy foods and lifestyle patterns are on track to go the same way cigarettes did. Maybe even in spite of the powerful lobbyists and stakeholders who may lose from such a shift.