I Don't Know How She Does It All. GPS- supported access to caffeine-related refueling stations. That's how she does it! It turns out parents of the Homeland generation, i.e. the parent demographic who themselves tend to belong to younger Generation X parents and older Millennials,...
For a child born today, what will the world look like in 2100? This is the topic of a special section of The Futurist, September- October issue. Via scenarios and forecasts from some of the leading expert within foresight, we get a glimpse into what it will mean to be 88 at the dawn of the next century. This is the future of the Homeland generation. Millennials will be 96 to 120 if they are alive and some of them will. Some scenarios make me infer that some Generation X members are still with us as "post-centenarians". Others take the the transhumanist/singulitarian view that we have passed the point where we will be able to live forever.
The trends and emerging issues covered range from energy, climate changes, economic systems, space travel, scientific breakthroughs - particularly in biology and computing – and of course, aging.
Extreme longevity seems to show up in many of the narratives, reflecting long anticipated breakthroughs in medicine, computing and biotechnology. Resource depletion combined with resource scarcity, governmental issues and dwelling patterns are other issues.
The “mood” of these forecasts, or the level of pessimism vs. optimism, seems to be in line with most futurist projections: If and when we can manage to reform ourselves before we totally ruin the planet, it’s going to worse only until it gets better. Similar to cycle theories like the Kondratiev long waves or Strauss and Howe’s generational predictions, we will most likely go through a period of crisis - a period we have already entered - before we enter a new “high period”.
Dr. William Halal and Laura B Huhn from TechCast believe a new high tech era will occur around 2020. This view is similar to that of Olli Hietanen and Marko Ahvenainen, Finland Futures Research Centre, who forecast a Sixth Kondratieff wave (2010 – 2050) based on new innovation and technologies within biotechnology. The Sixth wave differs from the Fifth because of the increasingly rising prices on raw materials and energy. The new paradigm in innovation and production is likely to be within molecular, or synthetic, biology, which will allow us to grow and change structures from raw biological materials. Just think about all the experiments happening with stem cells and organ scaffolding in the labs today! Not to mention biological 3-D printing. Tissue engineering will enable us to grow new organs and artificial meats, even biodegradable polymers to be used in manufacturing. These prospects might be frightening to some, conjuring up 19th and 20th century sci-fi dystopias like Frankenstein and Brave New World. But for most futurists, the unsustainable alternative of status quo is often much scarier!
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After I wrote piece on generational archetypes and their characteristics for a newspaper a few years ago I was surprised by the number of animated reactions I received in the online comment section. People don't like to be pigeonholed, even under my pretense of doing social science trend research. It turns out that when social scientists and market researchers use demographic, economic and cultural data to glean insight into contemporary trends they are stepping on psychological minefields. Readers often feel stigmatized by the findings and believe this way of classifying people is just an intellectualized form of bigotry.
I understand this hesitation, but I feel strongly that the goal of a social scientist is not to compartmentalize certain types of people to solidify unfounded myths, but quite the opposite. When social scientists make generalizations it’s always – or should always be - based on value neutrality and scientific observations. Moreover the goal is not to neglect human agency and individual differences, but to say something about the general trends.
This is one of the most appealing parts of being a futurist! Just when we find ourselves surrounded by statistics on scarcity and gloom, the wise visionaries in our field see mostly hope. And I love TED too. How else would I endure folding laundry...
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When I asked my 8-year old daughter the other day what she wants to be when she grows up she gave me a metacognitive answer I did not expect from somebody her age. "Mom, you know how children my age often dream of becoming popstars, but they know that it's probably never going to happen? Well, I'm one of those children who have those dreams. So in my dream I will become a popstar, but in the "real world" I'm going to be an engineer and find ways to get more clean fresh water for the world. Maybe by taking the salt out of the seawater".
Of course at age 8 few people really know what they want to do with their lives. I probably changed my mind at least thirty times growing up, and so do children today. Yet I feel that the signals they pick up from their environment today will have an impact on their future choosing. My own children and many of their friends have been learning about water conservation and the perils facing the global climate pretty much from they learned how to talk. Today teaching children about environmental protection in preschool and elementary school seems as important as teaching them basic manners and academic pre-skills. And that is not even mentioning the lessons you learn from the increasingly severe summer droughts in central Texas!
Yet if current trends continue by the time this generation reach college, the best and brightest minds might very well be sucked up by Wall Street firms and big
