And the post-millennials, Generation Z, have turned either 26 or 17 depending on how you like to classify them. As a futurist I started this blog when I sensed that my children’s generation and their future would look very different from generations before them. I knew they would deal with the effects of a multitude of global trends accelerating and coalescing to form new social conditions that require completely new solutions. It seemed that our children would be tasked with having to figure this out, and they deserve our guidance.
Getting Generation Z is essential for business everybody
My blog quickly evolved into a consulting and speaking service. At first it was a strictly generationally oriented Foresight business. Data was scant and most of my research would consist of sifting through trends and weak signals to envision alternative futures where Generation Z were the main protagonists. I guided my research using the generational framework of historians Strauss and Howe, a cyclical theory which suggests that different generational archetypes pass through four historical turnings over a period of about 80 years. As more data became available I introduced more quantitative approaches and data analytics to have a more empirically robust foundation for my research. Now 10 years later, Strauss and Howe’s theory has proven eerily accurate.
Why data driven approaches are crucial
The risk of relying on a theory with inadequate data is that we cherry pick anecdotes to inform our conclusions. A number of assertions about Generation Z has popped up over the years, many which seem to be driven by other motivations that inquisitive research. This can have devastating consequences when those ideas are used to inform strategies. We will invariably settle for strategies that seem sensible, but fail to address the correct problems. In the case of younger generations, we might misinterpret or downplay their struggles and introduce flawed and ageist suggestions into the organization. For example, if after reading some catchy headlines we falsely believe younger generations today are significantly more entrepreneurial and innovative, we might introduce ageists hiring policies or prematurely promote young employees into positions they are not ready for, magnifying anxieties and performance pressure in an already pretty risk averse generation. And our business might fail miserably. Or if we believe social media is the main cause of Generation Z’s mental health problems, we will miss that these studies fail to explain over 90% of the causes of their mental health decline. And we will most definitely have ignored the number of scientific studies that debunk this idea all together(1,2,3,4,5). Wouldn’t it be irresponsible to dismiss all the other plausible reasons for why our kids are experiencing a mental health crisis? Would you trust a doctor who misdiagnosed your child because he didn’t bother to test other causes than his own pet theory?
As filter bubbles and clickbait headlines distract and fool us into accepting biased or misinformed assumptions about the present, data driven approaches are more important than ever. Especially when we study the drivers of social change. Human behavior follows both predictable patterns and less predictable idiosyncrasies. If we don’t get the big patterns right it will be harder to tell the signals from the noise when we observe individual behaviors.
The bigger picture
Busting those myths helps us see the bigger picture. This is essential if we are going to help our younger generations. And our aging selves. It becomes easier to recognize why our current generation of elders who grew up in an era of seemingly infinite growth and progress, tends to downplay the impending crises that their hyperconnected children and grandchildren grasp so precociously well. We are told those kids are anxious because they were over-protected. But blaming Helicopter parenting is useless if we are reminded that we have mostly protected our kids from threats of the past. What we might fail to see is that kids are anxious because they fear future threats that their adults haven’t really prepared for at all.
A famous quote reads, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes.” We can learn from historical parallels, but we can’t repeat the solutions of the past. There is a season for everything and a phase when the old needs to give way to the new. This is painful. But it’s the inevitable course of almost any natural system.
Growing into their season
I have gained insights surveying and interviewing a number of Generation Zers and have received letters from them telling me they are anxious about the road ahead. But also excited to bring on a new era of institutional change. Some have told me they’ve found their life paths after I helped them see how their experiences are connected to bigger trends and larger historic context. I’ve talked with business leaders and philanthropists who sincerely want to help this generation prepare for a future that none of us can be fully ready for.
In many ways the story makes a full circle on this 10 year anniversary. Or perhaps a new beginning? A new beginning based on the collection of thousands of data points, hundreds of meta studies and dozens of datasets that have been collected, joined, regressed and analyzed over this past decade. After the Millennials was born at the cusp of huge transformations, in fact in the shadow of the Great Recession. Today it has documented how many of those transformations got from there to here.
I still don’t have all the answers, but I will continue to provide the data, the framework, the critical thinking and the various scenarios that can help guide us forward. I hope you stay with me for the next 10 years and that we can work together on the next stretch of the journey.